Favourites win about 40.7% of all US races, but that average hides a huge spread: from nearly one in two at the small regional tracks down to one in three at the deep-field marquee meetings. Here is the full ranking of all 35 US tracks with a year of data.
We captured every US result over a rolling year, from October 2025 to September 2026, and worked out how often the starting-price favourite won at each track (minimum 200 races). The pattern is the opposite of what most punters assume.
Ranked by favourite win rate. ROI is the level-stakes return to backing every favourite at starting price: a green figure means blind favourite backing showed a small profit over the year, red a loss. Most tracks lose, as you would expect.
| Track | Races | Fav win rate | ROI at SP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Gulfstream | 1,709 | 38.4% | -9.1% |
| 2. Charles Town | 1,256 | 43.2% | -4.7% |
| 3. Laurel Park | 1,030 | 38.1% | -5.4% |
| 4. Horseshoe Indianapolis | 1,016 | 39.1% | -6.0% |
| 5. Mountaineer | 923 | 42.3% | -5.1% |
| 6. Santa Anita | 827 | 40.9% | -7.8% |
| 7. Thistledown | 811 | 43.8% | +2.6% |
| 8. Tampa Bay Downs | 790 | 42.9% | +0.9% |
| 9. Churchill Downs | 787 | 38.9% | -4.2% |
| 10. Turf Paradise | 782 | 43.5% | +2.5% |
| 11. Mahoning Valley | 754 | 38.5% | -4.0% |
| 12. Aqueduct | 694 | 41.1% | -6.1% |
| 13. Finger Lakes | 692 | 45.7% | +0.4% |
| 14. Penn National | 675 | 46.2% | +2.5% |
| 15. Fair Grounds | 636 | 40.7% | -6.3% |
| 16. Oaklawn Park | 627 | 38.0% | -4.1% |
| 17. Delaware Park | 584 | 44.3% | +2.0% |
| 18. Presque Isle Downs | 564 | 40.4% | -9.1% |
| 19. Turfway Park | 527 | 33.0% | -3.6% |
| 20. Saratoga | 524 | 36.3% | -6.7% |
| 21. Remington Park | 452 | 42.3% | -1.7% |
| 22. Del Mar | 438 | 39.7% | -0.0% |
| 23. Colonial Downs | 436 | 39.0% | -5.5% |
| 24. Belmont At The Big A | 425 | 41.2% | -2.0% |
| 25. Sunland Park | 384 | 34.9% | -12.9% |
| 26. Monmouth Park | 379 | 43.3% | -9.0% |
| 27. Fairmount Park | 373 | 39.9% | -9.8% |
| 28. Canterbury Park | 352 | 44.6% | -4.6% |
| 29. Lone Star | 344 | 38.7% | -5.0% |
| 30. Emerald Downs | 316 | 43.4% | +3.5% |
| 31. Sam Houston Race Park | 312 | 37.5% | -15.6% |
| 32. Keeneland | 303 | 35.0% | -13.5% |
| 33. Hawthorne | 268 | 44.4% | -3.5% |
| 34. Will Rogers Downs | 237 | 47.7% | +0.9% |
| 35. Ellis Park | 228 | 38.6% | +4.7% |
The elite circuits (Keeneland at 35.0%, Saratoga at 36.3%, Gulfstream and Churchill Downs below the average) draw the deepest, most competitive fields in the country. More live contenders means the favourite is beaten more often, and the crowd still bets it short. Turfway Park is bottom of the list at 33.0% partly because it races on a synthetic surface, which levels the field further.
At the other end, small regional dirt tracks like Will Rogers Downs, Penn National and Finger Lakes run shorter, more formful fields where the best horse wins more predictably, so the favourite strikes at closer to a coin-flip. A handful even show a small profit to blind backing, though those are single-year samples and should be treated with caution.
The Overlay is a free, data-only US racing service, never a tipster. Our US track angles page lets you sort every track by favourite strike rate, ROI, dirt or turf and field size, alongside par times and live cards.
Do favourites win in US racing?Favourites by field sizeEvery US race we captured from 1 October 2025 to 24 September 2026 with a settled result and a clear starting-price favourite (the single shortest-priced runner). Win rate is favourite wins divided by races; ROI is level-stakes profit or loss per point at starting price. Tracks with fewer than 200 races are excluded. Figures are historical and for information only, never a guarantee.