17:00 Irishinjuredjockeys.com Apprentice Optional Claiming Race
Top-rated: Tyson Fury at 9/4 (our rating: 16% win, 42% place)
The model makes Tyson Fury the strongest chance in the race: it looks well treated at the weights, it comes here fresh and in good time off its last run and it stands clearly above the field on official ratings. It edges the field by 23 points on our numbers. Recent form has been poor, so this leans on proven ability rather than current fitness. Even so, horses we rate this way win only about 16 in 100: this is a rating of chance, not a tip (9/4).
17:30 Book Online At DundalkStadium.com Maiden
Top-rated: Otsana at 10/3 (our rating: 8% win, 26% place)
Nothing really stands out in this race. The best our numbers can offer is Otsana (it comes here fresh and in good time off its last run and the yard is in good form), but we rate it only a modest chance. Even so, horses we rate this way win only about 8 in 100: this is a rating of chance, not a tip (10/3).
18:00 James Crowe 1 Year Memorial Nursery Handicap
Top-rated: Our Boy Bailey at 8/1 (our rating: 8% win, 26% place)
Nothing really stands out in this race. The best our numbers can offer is Our Boy Bailey (a headgear change could sharpen it up, it comes here fresh and in good time off its last run and it stands clearly above the field on official ratings), but we rate it only a modest chance. Recent form has been poor, so this leans on proven ability rather than current fitness. Even so, horses we rate this way win only about 8 in 100: this is a rating of chance, not a tip (8/1).
18:30 Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (0-60) (Div 1)
Top-rated: Una Matata at 4/1 (our rating: 16% win, 42% place)
The model makes Una Matata the strongest chance in the race: it looks well treated at the weights, it has a solid career strike rate and it comes here fresh and in good time off its last run. It edges the field by 24 points on our numbers. Recent form has been poor, so this leans on proven ability rather than current fitness. Even so, horses we rate this way win only about 16 in 100: this is a rating of chance, not a tip (4/1).
19:00 Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (0-60) (Div 2)
Top-rated: Four Blondes at 6/1 (our rating: 16% win, 42% place)
The model makes Four Blondes the strongest chance in the race: it looks well treated at the weights, it comes here fresh and in good time off its last run and it stands clearly above the field on official ratings. It is narrowly top of a close race (0 points clear of the next). Recent form has been poor, so this leans on proven ability rather than current fitness, and the yard has been quiet of late. Even so, horses we rate this way win only about 16 in 100: this is a rating of chance, not a tip (6/1).
19:30 BAR 1 Betting 'Supporting Irish Racing' Handicap
Top-rated: Valiant Force at 17/2 (our rating: 12% win, 34% place)
Nothing really stands out in this race. The best our numbers can offer is Valiant Force (it looks well treated at the weights, it has a solid career strike rate and it comes here fresh and in good time off its last run), but we rate it only a modest chance. Recent form has been poor, so this leans on proven ability rather than current fitness, and its recent in-running notes read poorly. Even so, horses we rate this way win only about 12 in 100: this is a rating of chance, not a tip (17/2).
20:00 View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Handicap
Top-rated: Expound at 12/1 (our rating: 16% win, 42% place)
The model makes Expound the strongest chance in the race: it looks well treated at the weights, it comes here fresh and in good time off its last run and the likely race shape should suit. It is narrowly top of a close race (2 points clear of the next). Recent form has been poor, so this leans on proven ability rather than current fitness, and its recent in-running notes read poorly. Even so, horses we rate this way win only about 16 in 100: this is a rating of chance, not a tip (12/1).
20:30 Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Book Now Handicap
Top-rated: Slieve Binnian at 4/1 (our rating: 16% win, 42% place)
The model makes Slieve Binnian the strongest chance in the race: it looks well treated at the weights, it comes here fresh and in good time off its last run and it has a solid career strike rate. It is narrowly top of a close race (7 points clear of the next). Recent form has been poor, so this leans on proven ability rather than current fitness. Even so, horses we rate this way win only about 16 in 100: this is a rating of chance, not a tip (4/1).