The Overlay WC 26
On the board
no-vig consensusEach bar is our true-probability split after stripping the bookmaker margin. Cards outlined in gold carry a flagged value observation below. World Cup fixtures only.
Value observations
EV โฅ 3% ยท guards onA selection appears here only when the best available price implies a lower chance than our consensus, after the overround, price, outlier and longshot guards. We state the assumptions and let the closing line be the judge. None of this is advice to bet.
The 12 groups
live tablesMini-league tables and every fixture, updating through the tournament. Top two advance, plus the eight best third-placed teams: 32 of 48 reach the knockouts. In-play games update the table provisionally and are marked live.
| Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ๐ฒ๐ฝMEXMexico H | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| ๐ฟ๐ฆRSASouth Africa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | −1 | 4 |
| ๐ฐ๐ทKORSouth Korea | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | −1 | 3 |
| ๐จ๐ฟCZECzech Republic | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | −4 | 1 |
Fixtures & results6 matches
| Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ๐จ๐ญSUISwitzerland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| ๐จ๐ฆCANCanada H | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 4 |
| ๐ง๐ฆBIHBosnia and Herzegovina | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | −1 | 4 |
| ๐ถ๐ฆQATQatar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | −8 | 1 |
Fixtures & results6 matches
| Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ๐ง๐ทBRABrazil | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 7 |
| ๐ฒ๐ฆMARMorocco | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟSCOScotland | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | −3 | 3 |
| ๐ญ๐นHAIHaiti | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | −6 | 0 |
Fixtures & results6 matches
| Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ๐บ๐ธUSAUnited States H | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 6 |
| ๐ฆ๐บAUSAustralia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| ๐ต๐พPARParaguay | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | −2 | 3 |
| ๐น๐ทTURTurkey | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | −3 | 0 |
Fixtures & results6 matches
| Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ๐ฉ๐ชGERGermany | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 6 |
| ๐จ๐ฎCIVIvory Coast | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| ๐ช๐จECUEcuador | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | −1 | 1 |
| ๐จ๐ผCUWCuracao | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | −6 | 1 |
Fixtures & results6 matches
| Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ๐ณ๐ฑNEDNetherlands | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 4 |
| ๐ฏ๐ตJPNJapanโ | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| ๐ธ๐ชSWESweden | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| ๐น๐ณTUNTunisiaโ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | −6 | 0 |
Fixtures & results6 matches ยท live
| Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ๐ง๐ชBELBelgium | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 4 |
| ๐ช๐ฌEGYEgypt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| ๐ฎ๐ทIRNIran | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ๐ณ๐ฟNZLNew Zealand | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | −4 | 0 |
Fixtures & results6 matches
| Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ๐ช๐ธESPSpain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| ๐ธ๐ฆKSASaudi Arabia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| ๐บ๐พURUUruguay | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −1 | 1 |
| ๐จ๐ปCPVCape Verde | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fixtures & results6 matches
| Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ๐ณ๐ดNORNorway | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| ๐ซ๐ทFRAFrance | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| ๐ธ๐ณSENSenegal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −2 | 0 |
| ๐ฎ๐ถIRQIraq | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | −3 | 0 |
Fixtures & results6 matches
| Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ๐ฆ๐ทARGArgentina | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 6 |
| ๐ฆ๐นAUTAustria | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 4 |
| ๐ฉ๐ฟALGAlgeria | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | −3 | 1 |
| ๐ฏ๐ดJORJordan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | −4 | 0 |
Fixtures & results6 matches
| Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ๐จ๐ดCOLColombia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| ๐จ๐ฉCODDR Congo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| ๐ต๐นPORPortugal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| ๐บ๐ฟUZBUzbekistan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | −4 | 0 |
Fixtures & results6 matches
| Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟENGEngland | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| ๐ญ๐ทCROCroatia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| ๐ฌ๐ญGHAGhana | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| ๐ต๐ฆPANPanama | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | −4 | 0 |
Fixtures & results6 matches
Tournament forecast
market-implied simEach team's chance to win its group and to reach the knockouts, from 12,000 simulations. We take strengths from the no-vig outright market, treat games already played as fact, and simulate the rest. Top two of each group advance, plus the eight best third-placed teams: 32 of 48 go through.
Win % is the chance of finishing top of the group; advance % includes the best-third route. Title odds are on the Top of the market tab. Market-implied: strengths come from the betting market, not a separate power model, and group tiebreaks use a strength-weighted proxy rather than the full FIFA head-to-head chain. Refreshed as results land.
Top of the market
title race ยท no-vigThe outright winner market through the same value lens as the board: we average the price across books, strip the overround, and read the no-vig probability for all 48 teams. The bar is each team's true chance; the price is the best available, and EV is the edge at that price. Sourced from the live winner market.
No-vig consensus across 3 books at 2.7% overround on the outright market. A green EV means the best price implies a lower chance than our consensus; on a deep, efficient title market that is rare and usually lives in the longer prices. Not advice to bet.
Performance
World Cup recordAnyone can claim an edge. We measure ours. Every flagged World Cup selection is logged at its publication price and tracked to the close and to the result. Closing-line value (CLV) comes first because it is the number that separates a real edge from luck; the settled return follows. World Cup picks only.
The CLV trend chart appears once at least two picks have a captured closing price. Closes are captured as each fixture nears kickoff.
Sample is small, so read CLV before ROI: a positive average CLV on a growing sample is the durable signal, while strike rate and ROI swing hard on a handful of results. ROI is at flat one-point stakes on the advised (publication-best) price. A/E above 1 means flagged picks won more often than the model expected.
| Market | Picks | Settled | SR | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | 2 | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Both teams to score | 3 | 1 | 0% | -100.0% | n/a |
| Fixture | Selection | Price | Model | EV | CLV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France v England2026-07-18 | BTTS BTTS NO | 2/1 | 34.5% | +3.5% | to come | PENDING |
| England v Argentina2026-07-15 | BTTS BTTS NO | 26/25 | 50.3% | +2.6% | to come | LOST |
| France v Spain2026-07-14 | BTTS BTTS NO | 29/21 | 43.5% | +3.6% | to come | PENDING |
| Spain v Belgium2026-07-10 | Result Belgium | 5/1 | 17.4% | +4.1% | to come | PENDING |
| France v Morocco2026-07-09 | Result Morocco | 6/1 | 15.3% | +6.9% | to come | PENDING |
Not advice to bet. A measured record of modelled value, published in full including losers. Past results are not a guide to future returns.
How the edge is built
methodology- Consensus, not a hunch. We average the implied probability across up to 20 bookmakers for each outcome.
- Strip the margin. The overround is removed so the probabilities sum to 100%, leaving a true-probability estimate.
- Price the edge. We compare that true probability to the best available price and compute expected value honestly, after the realistic margin.
- Guard against noise. Selections must clear a 3% EV floor inside price and overround limits, and pass outlier and longshot checks that reject single-book mispricings.
- Measure everything. Each flagged price is logged and compared to the close, so the edge is proven by CLV rather than asserted.
Is this betting tips?
No. These are value observations grounded in probability and price, with the assumptions stated. We never tell you to back a selection.
Why no xG on World Cup games?
Our xG source covers club leagues only, so international fixtures are priced on the no-vig market consensus alone. We say so rather than imply a model input that is not there.
What counts as value?
A price whose implied probability sits below our consensus, leaving at least 3% expected value, after the guards.
How often does it update?
Through every match day. The freshness stamp at the top shows the last refresh.