By The Overlay teamCorrections
Rarely. Only one favourite has won the Paddy Power Gold Cup in 16 runnings since 2010, the 4/1 shot in 2023. The wider pattern backs that up: in Cheltenham handicap chases the favourite wins 20.2% of the time, against 29.6% in handicap chases at other courses.
The Paddy Power Gold Cup, a handicap chase over about two and a half miles, is the centrepiece of Cheltenham's November Meeting and is run on Saturday 14 November 2026. It is one of the first big handicap chases of the jumps season, so we went to our UK and Irish results database to see how the race, and races like it, have gone at starting price.
Sixteen races is far too small a sample to build anything on, so most of this page looks at the bigger group the race belongs to: 425 handicap chases at Cheltenham (5,520 runners) and 21,022 handicap chases across Britain and Ireland (174,896 runners), from January 2010 to 6 November 2026.
Year by year, from our results (the race ran as the BetVictor Gold Cup from 2016 to 2019). Market position is where the winner stood in the betting at SP, 1 being the favourite.
| Year | Runners | Winner's SP | Winner's market position | Favourite's SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15 | 6/1 | 3 | 10/3 |
| 2024 | 15 | 10/1 | 7 | 3/1 |
| 2023 | 14 | 4/1 | 1 (favourite) | 4/1 |
| 2022 | 14 | 5/1 | 2 | 4/1 |
| 2021 | 19 | 9/1 | 4 | 11/2 |
| 2020 | 16 | 10/1 | 5 | 5/1 |
| 2019 | 17 | 14/1 | 8 | 4/1 |
| 2018 | 18 | 8/1 | 4 | 6/1 |
| 2017 | 17 | 25/1 | 14 | 4/1 |
| 2016 | 17 | 8/1 | 4 | 7/2 |
| 2015 | 20 | 12/1 | 7 | 13/2 |
| 2014 | 18 | 10/1 | 6 | 5/1 |
| 2013 | 20 | 7/1 | 2 | 6/1 |
| 2012 | 18 | 8/1 | 3 | 7/4 |
| 2011 | 20 | 8/1 | 3 | 7/2 |
| 2010 | 18 | 20/1 | 8 | 2/1 |
Winners ranged from 4/1 to 25/1, and only 6 of the 16 came from the first three in the betting. With fields of 14 to 20 runners, that is not surprising. With so few runnings, read this as a description of what happened, not a pattern to lean on.
Less often than anywhere else, on our figures. Across 425 Cheltenham handicap chases the favourite won 20.2% of races and backing every one lost 17.2% at SP. In 20,597 handicap chases at other UK and Irish courses the favourite won 29.6% and lost 9.1%.
| Handicap chases, 2010 to 2026 | Races | Average runners | Favourite win rate | Favourite ROI at SP | Average SP margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham | 425 | 13.0 | 20.2% | -17.2% | 20.3% |
| All other UK and Irish courses | 20,597 | 8.2 | 29.6% | -9.1% | 15.6% |
| All handicap chases | 21,022 | 8.3 | 29.4% | -9.2% | 15.6% |
Part of the gap is simply field size: a Cheltenham handicap chase averages 13 runners against about 8 elsewhere, and the more rivals the favourite has, the less often it wins. The SP margin (the overround, what the prices add up to above 100%) is also higher at 20.3%, which takes more out of every price.
Not entirely. Compare like with like and Cheltenham favourites still win less often in mid-sized fields, though in the biggest fields the two are close. The Cheltenham rows are small samples (68 to 140 races each), so treat the gaps as a lean, not a law.
| Field size | Cheltenham races | Cheltenham favourite win rate | Elsewhere races | Elsewhere favourite win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 to 7 runners | 68 | 38.2% | 10,140 | 35.0% |
| 8 to 11 | 140 | 18.8% | 7,388 | 26.3% |
| 12 to 15 | 77 | 13.0% | 2,297 | 20.2% |
| 16 or more | 140 | 16.8% | 772 | 17.7% |
The Paddy Power Gold Cup itself sits in the 12 to 15 or 16-plus bands most years. In handicap chases of 16 or more runners anywhere, the favourite won 17.6% of 912 races and lost 16.3% at SP, with an average SP margin of 35.4%.
Split by position in the market, the Cheltenham favourite and second favourite win well below their counterparts elsewhere, while third to fifth favourites win about as often as they do at other courses. Every position lost money at SP in both groups.
| Market position | Cheltenham win rate | Cheltenham ROI at SP | Elsewhere win rate | Elsewhere ROI at SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite | 19.3% | -19.9% | 28.8% | -9.2% |
| 2nd in the betting | 13.9% | -22.0% | 19.7% | -12.7% |
| 3rd | 13.5% | -3.0% | 14.4% | -15.8% |
| 4th | 11.0% | -8.6% | 11.4% | -13.1% |
| 5th | 9.8% | -2.0% | 8.9% | -14.0% |
| 6th or bigger | 3.7% | -31.8% | 4.5% | -26.6% |
Joint favourites count in the favourite row here, so this row differs slightly from the per-race figure above. Each Cheltenham row covers 428 to 493 runners (3,290 for 6th or bigger), which is a small sample: the smaller losses in the 3rd to 5th rows are well within what chance alone can produce.
At Cheltenham's November fixtures alone there were 69 handicap chases in our data (886 runners). The favourite won 11 of them (15.9%), and none of the 21 favourites in fields of 16 or more won. That is a striking line, and a tiny sample: it says more about how open these early-season handicaps are than about anything that will repeat.
Big Cheltenham handicap chases are hard races for the market to call. Favourites win less often than in handicap chases elsewhere, the SP margin is higher, and the winner of the Paddy Power Gold Cup has usually come from further down the betting. None of that makes any horse a bet: every market position lost money at SP. What it does say is that the favourite's price deserves more doubt in this race than in most, and that the useful question is whether any runner's price is out of line with its fair chance, not who heads the market.
For the wider picture see favourites in handicaps and non-handicaps and favourites by field size, and for the course itself our Cheltenham racecourse guide.
Every runner’s fair odds beside 20+ bookmakers’ prices, and a flag when one bookmaker’s best price beats them. Most flagged horses still lose; we settle every flag in public. Free, no account. 18+, please bet responsibly.
Open the racecardsEvery handicap chase in our results database at a GB or Irish meeting from 1 January 2010 to 6 November 2026: races run over fences with "chase" and "handicap" in the title, excluding hurdles, hunter chases and cross-country races, and excluding races recorded as abandoned or with no official result. That gave 21,022 races (174,896 runners), 425 of them at Cheltenham (5,520 runners); 13 races with a runner missing an official SP were left out. The Paddy Power Gold Cup rows are the Cheltenham November handicap chase run as the Paddy Power Gold Cup or BetVictor Gold Cup, 2010 to 2025. Non-runners are excluded; fallers, pulled-up and unseated horses count as losers. The favourite is the shortest-priced runner at SP; joint favourites share a 1-point stake equally, and dead heats are paid by the dead-heat rule. Win rate is favourite wins divided by races; ROI is level-stakes profit or loss at SP per point staked. Market position ranks runners by SP, with tied prices sharing the better position. SP margin is the sum of 1/SP in a race minus 100%, averaged over races. Historical and for information only.
More favourite studies: Do favourites win? · Favourites in handicaps · Favourites by field size · Win rates by market position · Betfair Chase