How to read a post
The gold arc is the share of runs the horse won under that condition: half a ring is a 50% win rate. The thin inner arc is the share where it placed (first three). The number in the middle is the win percentage, and the fraction under the label is wins over runs.
Grey with a fraction in the middle means fewer than three runs: too few to rate. A dash means it has never run under that condition. Dimmed with a year means the last run there was over three years ago. A question mark on the going post means the going was not declared when the card was built; it fills in by 10.30am. There are no colours for good or bad: the amount of gold is the record.
The going post
The horse’s record on the same official going as today (good at Wetherby), flat runs compared with flat runs and jumps with jumps.
On today’s card: On this going, Genois has 1 win from 9 runs and was placed in 6 of them: the gold arc covers 11% of the ring.
Rule of thumbLook at it first when the ground is the story: soft, heavy or firm. On middling good ground most horses have form, and it rarely separates a field.
The class post
Its record in races of the same class as today’s (Class 1), where Class 1 is the top level and 7 the lowest.
On today’s card: At this class, Genois has 1 win from 3 runs and was placed in 2 of them: the gold arc covers 33% of the ring.
Rule of thumbA win at this class says the horse belongs at this level. A horse stepping up has not proved that yet; see horses moving in class today.
The course post
Its record at Wetherby, any distance, same code.
On today’s card: At this course, Genois has 2 wins from 4 runs and was placed in 3 of them: the gold arc covers 50% of the ring.
Rule of thumbGive it more weight at tracks unlike the rest: tight bends, steep cambers, sharp downhill runs or stiff uphill finishes. At a fair, galloping track it matters less.
The distance post
Its record over today’s trip (2m 3f 85y), counting any race within half a furlong of it.
On today’s card: Over this distance, Genois has 3 wins from 7 runs and was placed in 4 of them: the gold arc covers 43% of the ring.
Rule of thumbA win at the trip is proof the horse stays it, or has the speed for it. A first try at a new trip is a question the race will answer.
The field post
Its record in fields of a similar size to today’s 6 runners.
On today’s card: In a field this size, Genois has 1 win from 6 runs and was placed in 3 of them: the gold arc covers 17% of the ring.
Rule of thumbSome horses need a small field to get a clear run and are lost in a crowd. Check this post in big handicaps.
Does it pay?
Evidence: every UK and Irish runner since 21 December 2025 (309 racing days, 102,741 runners with a starting price), from our Angle Builder record. A/E is actual winners divided by the winners the starting prices expected: 1.00 means exactly as the market predicted, and every runner together comes out at 0.84 because of the bookmakers’ margin.
| Runner has… | Runners | Won | A/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Course and distance winner | 4,430 | 15.9% | 0.84 |
| Course winner | 2,169 | 15.1% | 0.83 |
| Distance winner | 11,800 | 13.5% | 0.85 |
| Has won on today’s going | 13,402 | 15.7% | 0.85 |
| Has won at today’s class | 14,517 | 16.3% | 0.87 |
| Every runner | 102,741 | 10.9% | 0.84 |
Win rate is winners over runners; A/E at starting price. Updated from the Angle Builder log of 2026-10-30.
Every line wins more often than the 10.9% of all runners, and every line’s A/E sits within a few points of the 0.84 for every runner. That is the honest reading: the Winning Post tells you why a horse is fancied. It does not tell you the price is wrong.
Next to the fair odds
That is why the posts sit beside each runner’s fair chance: the market’s own view with the bookmakers’ margin taken out. The Winning Post explains a price; the fair chance says whether one bookmaker is offering more than it. A horse with a full set of gold rings at a price longer than its fair odds is the combination worth a second look. Neither one alone is a tip.
Part 2: fair odds explained, coming next week. How we take the margin out of 20+ bookmakers’ prices, and what a price longer than fair really means.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Post on The Overlay?
Five small rings beside every runner on our racecards. Each one is the horse's own record under one of today's conditions: the going, the class, the course, the distance and the field size. It describes the horse; it does not pick it.
What do the gold ring and the inner ring mean?
The gold arc is the share of those runs the horse won. The thinner inner arc is the share where it finished in the first three. The fraction under the label is wins over runs.
Why is a ring grey, a dash or a question mark?
Grey with a fraction in the middle means fewer than three runs under that condition, too few to rate. A dash means it has never run under that condition. A question mark on the going post means today's going was not declared when the card was built; it fills in by 10.30am.
Do course and distance winners make good bets?
They win more often than average (15.9% against 10.9% for every runner since 21 December 2025), but the starting price already allows for it: their actual-to-expected ratio is 0.84, the same as every runner's 0.84. Proven form is priced in.
Where does the Winning Post data come from?
Each horse's full race record from Sporting Life and our own results database, matched to today's race: same going code, same class, same course, within half a furlong of the distance, a similar field size, and flat runs compared with flat runs, jumps with jumps.