The weekly honesty check

How our ratings landed

23 October 2026 to 29 October 2026

Every week we publish the one number that matters to us: how well our ratings matched reality. Over the last seven days we rated 2,640 runners across 269 races. The promise is simple: a horse we rate an X% chance should win about X% of the time. Here is how each rating tier actually did. It is a measure of honesty, not a tip.

2,640Runners rated
269Races
9.5%We rated (avg)
7.2%They won
Our ratingRunnersWe ratedThey won
Standout1624.3%18.8%
Top rated2819.3%10.7%
Shortlist22214.5%10.8%
Watch52010.9%10%
Pass1,8548.2%5.8%

"We rated" is the average chance our model gave the runners in that tier, measured forward and leak-free. "They won" is how often they actually won. When the two columns are close, our ratings are honest. We publish this whether it flatters us or not. It is never a tip or a betting edge.

See how our fair odds have done →

The Overlay rates every runner's chance and publishes the record in full. Honest calibration, never a tipster. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org

Our record · Today's racecards · The Overlay